Aug 25, 2023
How Electrifying Everything Became a Key Climate Solution
By Nadja Popovich and Brad PlumerApril 14, 2023 How electrification became a
By Nadja Popovich and Brad PlumerApril 14, 2023
How electrification became a major tool for fighting climate change.
A key part of America's plan to slash carbon emissions:
Plug in cars and trucks.
The United States still gets most of its energy by setting millions of tiny fires everywhere. Cars, trucks, homes and factories all burn fossil fuels in countless engines, furnaces and boilers, creating pollution that heats the planet.
To tackle climate change, those machines will need to stop polluting. And the best way to do that, experts increasingly say, is to replace them with electric versions — cars, heating systems and factories that run on clean sources of electricity like wind, solar or nuclear power.
But electrifying almost everything is a formidable task.
Other
Other
Heavy-duty trucks
Heavy-duty trucks
Buses
and rail
Buses
and rail
<0.1%
Medium-
duty trucks
Medium-
duty trucks
Other
Other
0%
Transportation
Construction
Construction
24.5 quads
<1% electric
Aviation
Aviation
Industrial
0%
Passenger vehicles
Passenger vehicles
18.2 quads
14.1
7%
Water
heating
Water
heating
Chemicals
Chemicals
7.3
Food and
animal feed
Food and
animal feed
Space
heating
Space
heating
16%
Paper
products
Paper
products
Residential
Iron and
steel
Iron and
steel
11.7 quads
Commercial
8.7 quads
Other
Other
Other
Other
5%
Space
heating
Space
heating
Light.
Light.
Other
Other
Heavy-duty trucks
Heavy-duty trucks
0%
2%
3.8
<0.1%
Buses and rail
Buses and rail
Machinery and
electronics
Machinery and
electronics
Medium-
duty trucks
Medium-
duty trucks
Shipping
Shipping
Other
Other
1.9
1.5
Agriculture
and forestry
Agriculture
and forestry
Transportation
Construction
Construction
24.5 quadrillion B.T.U.
2.0
<1% electric
Aviation
Aviation
Passenger vehicles
Passenger vehicles
2.3
0%
Industrial
14.1
18.2 quads
7%
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Chemicals
Chemicals
Water heating
Water heating
7.3
1.8
Food and
animal feed
Food and
animal feed
Cement
and lime
Cement
and lime
Space heating
Space heating
Washing
and drying
5.6
Washing
and drying
Air
conditioning
Refrigeration
Refrigeration
Air
conditioning
16%
Paper
products
Paper
products
Residential
Iron and
steel
Iron and
steel
Air
conditioning
Air
conditioning
11.7 quads
Cooking
Cooking
Refrigeration
Refrigeration
Commercial
Water
heating
Water
heating
Lighting and
electronics
Lighting and
electronics
8.7 quads
Other
Other
Other
3.0
Other
2.1
5%
Space heating
Space heating
Lighting
and electonics
Lighting
and electonics
2.1
Cooking
Cooking
0%
Here's how Americans use energy today. Total energy consumed in 2021, in quadrillion B.T.U.
Here's how much of that energy comes from electricity. Electricity as a percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Transforming the economy so that more things run on clean electricity is a cornerstone of President Biden's plan to slash emissions to nearly zero by 2050.
The New York Times used data from Evolved Energy Research, an energy modeling firm, to visualize what the nation's energy use might look like in 2050 if the United States were able to meet the president's climate change goals, using technology available today or just over the horizon, while minimizing costs.
In this future, far more of America's energy would come from electricity. The country would also use less energy overall, since electric devices are often more efficient than ones that burn fossil fuels. For example, a gasoline-powered car uses only about 30 percent of the energy in its fuel to move its wheels, with most of the rest wasted as heat. An electric car uses about 80 percent of its energy.
By 2050, electricity would play a much bigger role:
Medium-
duty trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Other
Passenger vehicles
89%
Construction
Transportation
Chemicals
Aviation
25% electric
Other
Industrial
Water
heating
Food
and feed
Space
heating
Cement
and lime
63%
Air cond.
Residential
Iron and
steel
Machinery
Paper
Air cond.
Other
39%
Commercial
Space
heating
Other
96%
Light.
Less energy
use in 2050
2021
Medium-duty
trucks
Shipping
Other
Heavy-duty trucks
Buses
and rail
Passenger vehicles
Construction
89%
Transportation
Industrial
Aviation
Chemicals
Wood, glass and
plastic products
Other
25% electric
Water
heating
Food, bev.
and feed
Space
heating
63%
Cement
and lime
Washing
and drying
Agriculture
and forestry
Residential
Machinery
and electronics
Air
conditioning
Refrigeration
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Air
conditioning
Other
Water
heating
Refrigeration
Commercial
Lighting and
electronics
Space
heating
Other
Lighting and
electronics
Cooking
63%
Cooking
Less energy
use in 2050
2021
There are signs the United States is already moving in a more plugged-in direction. Sales of electric vehicles broke records last year, accounting for 5.8 percent of new cars sold, and the administration has proposed regulations to ensure they make up two-thirds of sales by 2032. Electric heat pumps outsold gas furnaces for the first time last year. A new climate law is providing billions of dollars in subsidies to hasten the transition.
Plugging in isn't the only way to cut emissions. Other options include clean hydrogen fuels, biofuels or technologies that capture pollution from the air, smokestacks or machines. But for many activities, the most straightforward solution is to go electric.
"If you ask, ‘How on Earth are we going to power the modern economy cleanly,’ nothing else makes sense," said Saul Griffith, founder and chief scientist of Rewiring America, an advocacy group. "All roads point to electrification."
Still, widespread electrification faces huge obstacles. It would mean replacing more than 280 million gasoline-powered cars and 200 million home appliances that run on natural gas such as furnaces, water heaters, stoves and dryers. Many Americans might balk at switching due to costs, logistics or a simple lack of interest. And some activities, such as long-haul trucking or chemical manufacturing, are difficult to electrify.
It's also not enough to shift to electric machines if their electricity comes from power plants that burn fossil fuels. Power plant emissions have declined 40 percent since 2005 as cheaper and cleaner gas, wind and solar energy sources have replaced coal. But much of the nation's electricity is still generated by burning gas and coal, and it is getting harder to build and connect new sources of renewable power to antiquated grids.
"There are people who say this is impossible, and people who say this isn't challenging at all," said Ben Haley, an energy expert and co-founder of Evolved Energy Research. "I’d say it's somewhere in between: It's challenging, but it's not impossible."
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Medium-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Other
Heavy-duty
trucks
Shipping
2%
< 0.1%
Buses
and rail
Shipping
Medium-duty
trucks
Passenger vehicles
89% electric
Passenger vehicles
Aviation
<1% electric
Aviation
Other
Less total energy
use in 2050
2021
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Other
2%
<0.1%
Medium-
duty trucks
Shipping
Passenger vehicles
<1% electric
Aviation
0%
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Medium-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Shipping
Buses
and rail
Passenger vehicles
89% electric
Aviation
Other
Less total energy
use in 2050
2021
America's transportation system, which includes everything from cars to boats to airplanes, still runs almost entirely on fuels derived from oil. Only a tiny fraction of cars and trucks today are electric.
Passenger vehicles are widely considered the most feasible to electrify as battery-powered cars, S.U.V.s and pickup trucks enter the mainstream, though high costs and the availability of charging stations remain major hurdles.
By contrast, heavy-duty trucks that carry goods thousands of miles cross-country could prove harder to electrify, particularly if they require large batteries that take hours to charge. Some truck makers like Daimler and Volvo have said that a better alternative would be hydrogen fuel made from wind or solar power, though that would require extensive new infrastructure to make and distribute all that hydrogen.
"Batteries are in the lead right now, especially since we already have a charging network being built," said Tom Walker, the transportation technology manager at Clean Air Task Force, a nonprofit environmental group. "But it's not clear that electrification will make the most sense everywhere, so we should keep our options open."
Aviation is even tougher. Today's batteries are too bulky to power all but the smallest planes. For longer flights and bigger jets, airlines may need other options, such as fuels made from agricultural waste or more elaborate fuels that recycle carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which are still extremely costly.
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Water
heating
Space
heating
63%
36%
Washing
and dry.
Water heating
Air
conditioning
Space heating
Refrigeration
Washing
and dry.
99% electric
Air cond.
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
16% electric
Water
heating
Other
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
Residential
Cooking
Space
heating
Refrigeration
Other
96%
Lighting and
electronics
Lighting
and elec.
Water
heating
Commercial
63%
Lighting and
electronics
Other
53%
Cooking
Cooking
Other
86%
5%
Less total energy
use in 2050
Space
heating
Lighting
and elec.
Cooking
2021
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
36%
Washing
and drying
Water heating
Space heating
16% electric
Refrig.
Air cond.
Residential
Air cond.
Cooking
Refrigeration
Water
heating
Commercial
Lighting and
electronics
Other
Other
5%
53%
86%
Space
heating
Lighting
and elec.
Cooking
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Water
heating
Washing
and drying
Space heating
63%
Air
conditioning
Refrig.
Other
Water
heating
Air cond.
99%
Refrig.
Space
heating
96%
Other
Lighting and
electronics
Lighting
and elec.
Cooking
Cooking
Less total energy
use in 2050
2021
Most homes and businesses already use electricity to power air-conditioners, lights, refrigerators and other appliances.
But millions of buildings also burn fossil fuels, mainly natural gas or fuel oil, to power furnaces, hot water heaters, stoves, ovens and clothes dryers, together producing 13 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Electric alternatives already exist for most gas appliances. Electric heat pumps, for instance, essentially act as two-way air-conditioners that can provide cooling in the summer and heating in the winter. Heat pump technology has steadily improved in recent years, with many models able to operate efficiently in subzero temperatures.
But for many single-family homes or apartment buildings, the economics of switching from gas to electric heat may be forbidding, since natural gas is cheap. Some homes require costly upgrades to electric panels, or new ductwork.
And while last year's climate law offers subsidies for electric appliances, many contractors are still unfamiliar with heat pumps and electricians are in short supply. The gas industry has also fought hard against electrification policies.
"Every home is different and the costs of electrification can vary pretty widely," said Ryan Jones, a co-founder of Evolved Energy.
Another potential challenge: Many electric grids today are set up to deal with power demand peaking in the summer, when air-conditioners run full blast. But if electric heating becomes widespread, utilities will have to figure out how to handle surging demand in the winter — when, incidentally, there is less solar power available. (Currently, utilities stockpile vast quantities of natural gas underground for wintertime, which is much tougher to do with electricity.)
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Other
Machinery and
electronics
Construction
Other
27%
Agriculture
and forestry
Construction
Chemicals
13%
25% electric
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Chemicals
7%
electric
Food and
animal feed
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Cement
and lime
Agriculture
and forestry
Food and
animal feed
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Machinery and
electronics
Cement
and lime
39%
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Less total energy
use in 2050
2021
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Machinery and
electronics
Other
Agriculture
and forestry
Construction
13%
Chemicals
7%
electric
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Food and
animal feed
Cement
and lime
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Other
Construction
27%
Chemicals
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
25% electric
Food and
animal feed
Cement
and lime
Agriculture
and forestry
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Machinery and
electronics
39%
Less total energy
use in 2050
2021
American industries often need huge amounts of heat for a dizzying array of activities: creating steam, melting aluminum, tempering glass, processing sugar, even drying car parts. Today, much of this heat is created by burning natural gas or coal.
In theory, many companies could instead generate heat using electricity. One recent study by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that about half of industrial energy use had "high" or "medium" potential for electrification, including production of aluminum, machinery, wood, rubber and some plastics. But that is often significantly more expensive than generating heat by burning natural gas.
Other industrial processes are trickier to electrify. Cement kilns and glass manufacturers, for instance, often need temperatures in excess of 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit. The chemical industry, a major source of emissions, often uses fossil fuels as a raw material for its products, with no easy substitute.
Perhaps the biggest hurdle to electrifying industry is the lack of incentives. While the government offers tax credits for electric cars and home heat pumps, it has largely ignored the industrial sector, whose energy use is expected to keep growing in the coming decades. Many companies are wary of testing out new processes without government support.
"If we just waited around for another century, industry would probably move to electrification on its own, because it's more efficient than burning things for heat," said Chris Bataille, a research fellow at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. "But that's obviously not fast enough to meet our climate goals."
Electrification would require sweeping changes to the nation's power grids. Under the scenario visualized above, total electricity demand in the United States would roughly double by 2050, even as overall energy use went down.
To meet that demand, electric utilities would need to add staggering amounts of new emissions-free power while making sure that all those newly electrified cars, homes and factories don't strain the system and cause blackouts. They would also have to construct large new power lines across the country, both to accommodate far-flung renewable projects and to improve the reliability of the grid.
Yet transmission projects have become notoriously hard to build. And some experts have warned that the clean energy transition will falter without them.
"If we’re going to rely on the grid for so much more of our daily life, then we better start planning now to make sure it's a lot more resilient than it is today," said Susan Tierney, an energy consultant with the Analysis Group.
It's not a small concern. Last summer, amid a severe heat wave and electricity crunch, California asked residents to avoid charging their electric cars during peak hours. That raised questions about whether the grid could handle a surge of new demand at a time when climate change is already fueling extreme weather.
There are potential solutions. Utilities, for instance, could get better at scheduling when electric vehicles and other appliances are charged, so that they don't all power up at the same time and strain equipment or require the construction of costly new power plants. More battery storage could help, too.
Even so, some experts remain skeptical.
"To assume this will be the world we live in, in a few decades, is premature," said David Rapson, an economist at the University of California, Davis. He has said that rigid electric vehicle mandates such as those by California or the Biden administration may be too aggressive, potentially driving up costs and stifling other climate solutions.
Others point out that electrifying everything — or at least most things — will have broad benefits, including deep cuts in air pollution. Matteo Muratori, an analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, likened the transition from fossil fuels to electric to "going from analog to digital."
"There's a lot more you can do with electricity as a fuel," he said, "more efficiency, less waste, avoiding pollution — it's not just about greenhouse gases."
Data notes: Projections for U.S. energy consumption in 2050 are based on the "central" scenario in modeling by Evolved Energy Research. It reflects one potential pathway to net-zero emissions by mid-century that includes high rates of electrification. If, however, electrifying the economy proves more difficult than expected, the researchers have laid out other net-zero scenarios that make greater use of other technologies such as hydrogen or biofuels but that also cost more. More information about Evolved Energy Research's modeling is available in its 2022 ADP report.Current U.S. energy and electricity consumption is based on data from the Energy Information Administration's 2022 Annual Energy Outlook that has been modified by Evolved Energy Research. It reflects only energy consumed by end users and doesn't include upstream uses, such as energy used to extract fossil fuels or refine oil into gasoline. For some sectors, such as chemicals, energy includes both fossil fuels that are burned for heat and power as well as fossil fuels that are used as feedstocks for industrial processes.In this analysis, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles aren't counted as "electric" vehicles, and the air-conditioning category for commercial buildings includes ventilation.
Here's how Americans use energy today Here's how much of that energy comes from electricity. By 2050, electricity would play a much bigger role: Data notes: